16.1.13

Cellphone owners rather than subscriptions key mobile access policy indicator

Mobile subscription data becoming less useful for gauging mobile penetration
73% of world population owned a cellphone in 2011

Given that mobile communications is widely acknowledged as being the main Information and Communication Technology tool in developing nations, reliable figures on the level of penetration is important. However multi-SIM card ownership, lapsed subscriptions that are still counted for a time and the growing number of machines connected to mobile networks is increasingly blurring the relevance of mobile subscription based penetration figures (See: http://www.ictdata.org/2010/07/more-mobiles-than-people.html).
By the end of 2011, there were 93 countries with more mobile phone subscriptions than people.

Wireless Intelligence, a consultancy specializing in mobile numbers, recently acknowledged the mismatch between theory and reality:
“The assumption that the number of connections reflects the number of individuals subscribed to a network is increasingly a misleading one.” https://wirelessintelligence.com/analysis/2012/10/global-mobile-penetration-subscribers-versus-connections/354/
Wireless Intelligence uses several assumptions to arrive at a figure for their estimate of unique mobile subscriptions for 2012: 3.2 billion (or only 45% mobile user penetration compared to a 95% mobile subscription penetration). Their research is based on 39 countries, representing about 75% of global mobile connections.

There is a more accurate way to gauge mobile phone penetration: using surveys asking individuals if they own a mobile phone. A World Bank project carried out a survey in 2011 of households in rural areas of three Chinese provinces. Some 85% of respondents reported having a mobile phone. Of those that did not, almost a third stated that the reason was because they did not need one. Just over one in five reported that they could use another person's cellphone.
Results of 2011 household survey in rural areas of three Chinese provinces, World Bank 
Recent cellphone ownership surveys have been carried out in almost 100 countries. Based on this data—representing some 90% of the world's population and mobile subscriptions73 percent of the world's population (or 4.3 billion people) owned a mobile phone in 2011.
There are only 12 countries where 95% or more of the surveyed population owns a mobile phone.
Mobile phone ownership is ubiquitous in only around a dozen countries where 95% or more of the survey population claims to have a cellphone. These are mainly Middle Eastern and Nordic nations. Cellphone ownership was less than half the population in 16 countries where survey data is available.  The three economies where mobile subscriptions most outnumber actual cellphone ownership are Hong Kong, Botswana and Russia. The three where cellphone penetration is most understated based on subscription data are Haiti, Iraq and China. While cellular networks have had a huge impact on access to communications, there is still some distance to go to reach ubiquity.

Cellphone ownership, % of surveyed population, 2011
Mobile % population
subscriptions owning
per 100 people cell phone
Bahrain 150 99 15+
Qatar 130 99 * 15+
Albania 96 99 15+
Hong Kong 208 98 * 16-60
Iraq 78 98 15+
Haiti 42 98 15+
Finland 166 96 * 15+
Sweden 120 96 16-60
Spain 115 96 18+
Israel 121 95 18+
Jordan 120 95 18+
Latvia 103 95 * 15+
Italy 152 94 * 15+
Luxembourg 149 94 * 15+
Denmark 127 94 * 15+
Czech Republic 122 94 * 15+
Armenia 96 94 15+
Estonia 140 93 * 15+
Netherlands 119 93 * 15+
China 73 93 18+
Cyprus 134 92 * 15+
Austria 155 91 * 15+
Lithuania 153 91 18+
Macedonia 110 91 15+
Slovenia 107 91 * 15+
Ireland 107 91 * 15+
Uzbekistan 89 90 15+
United Kingdom 130 89 18+
Belgium 114 89 * 15+
Australia 109 89 18+
Germany 133 88 18+
Greece 108 88 * 15+
Iran 74 88 15+
Kazakhstan 140 87 15+
Morocco 114 87 12-65
Korea, Rep. 107 87 * 3+
Russia 180 86 18+
Croatia 116 86 15+
Japan 102 86 18+
Vietnam 143 85 15+
United States 106 85 18+
France 105 85 18+
Bosnia and Herzegovina 82 85 15+
Ukraine 122 84 18+
Portugal 115 84 * 15+
Azerbaijan 111 84 15+
Turkey 91 84 18+
Kyrgyz Republic 102 83 15+
South Africa 127 82 18+
Georgia 99 81 15+
Philippines 91 81 16-60
Turkmenistan 64 80 * 15+
Lebanon 85 79 18+
Poland 129 78 18+
Brazil 124 76 10+
Bulgaria 140 74 * 15+
Canada 75 74 18+
Kenya 66 74 18+
Egypt 105 71 18+
Moldova 104 71 * 15+
Nigeria 59 71 * 15+
Zimbabwe 73 70 15+
Thailand 122 69 * 15+
Afghanistan 56 64 15+
Botswana 157 62 * 15+
Ghana 87 59 * 15+
Mexico 86 57 18+
Indonesia 98 55 18+
Rwanda 44 54 * 15+
India 74 53 18+
Uganda 47 52 * 15+
Bangladesh 51 49 15+
Pakistan 62 48 18+
Ecuador 102 47 16+
Senegal 70 46 * 15+
Cameroon 50 43 * 15+
Sierra Leone 36 37 * 15+
Tanzania 61 35 * 15+
Cambodia 69 33 * 15+
Chad 35 32 * 15+
Burundi 15 32 * 15+
Liberia 45 22 * 15+
Mali 78 21 * 15+
Burkina Faso 51 19 * 15+
Niger 29 18 * 15+
Central African Republic 24 16 * 15+
Myanmar 2 6 15+
AVERAGE 87 73
Note: * = 2010.
Source: ictDATA.org adapted from Pew, Eurobarometer, BBG, Gallup and national government statistics.

Recommended citation:
ictDATA.org. 2013. "Cellphone owners rather than subscriptions key mobile access policy indicator." http://www.ictdata.org/2013/01/cellphone-owners-rather-than.html

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