ICT and MDGs

Several summary charts and tables highlight the impact of ICTs on achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) (http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/).

One of the earliest is from the ITU (http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/ict/publications/wtdr_03/). It calculates the impact of various interventions using different ICTs in several countries.

ITU. World Telecommunication Development Report 2003: Access Indicators for Information Society. p. 86
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A 2012 World Bank report provides examples of the impact of mobile applications on different MDGs (http://go.worldbank.org/0J2CTQTYP0).

World Bank. 2012 Information and Communications for Development: Maximizing Mobile.
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The impact of broadband on the MDGs was highlighted in a 2013 Broadband Commission report (http://www.broadbandcommission.org/documents/bb-annualreport2013.pdf)

Broadband Commission. The State of Broadband 2013: Universalizing Broadband. p. 30
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All links valid at 24 November 2013.

Fixed vs. mobile broadband speeds: Close to parity

Just ran speed tests for cable modem connection and mobile broadband (LTE). At 23.1 Mb/s cable modem download is slightly faster (by 0.9 Mb/s or 4.2%). However mobile broadband does significantly better than cable modem in upload speed at 8.81 Mb/s (4.1 Mb/s better or 83%). Ping is much faster on cable modem at 12 ms (more than 3 times faster). Results below.

Cable modem

T-Mobile LTE

Cable Broadband Brief

North America has half the world’s cable modem subscriptions

Cable modem technology has the biggest impact in Singapore

Broadband access over cable television networks (“cable broadband”) occupies a unique niche in high-speed Internet access markets. While not as popular as DSL or as glamorous as fiber optic, cable broadband nevertheless is a significant high-speed Internet technology in certain countries and regions. It is also an important source of intermodal competition.

Cable broadband has a number of attractions. Advertized speeds are generally faster than the Digital Subscriber Line (DSL) technology used over wired telephone networks. In the high-income members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), advertized cable broadband speeds are twice as fast as DSL (see chart).  Version 3.0 of the Data over Cable Service Interface Specification (DOCSIS) supports download speeds of 160 Megabits per second (Mbit/s).  A speed test of a cable broadband connection in Washington DC indicates download bandwidth of 25 Mbit/s, faster than 96% of Internet connections in the US (see chart).

There is a significant base of cable television subscriptions in some countries. China and India have a quarter of a billion cable television households between them. But the ability to provide cable broadband requires upgraded cable plant. In many developing countries, there are hundreds of small analog cable television networks without the scope to make the necessary investment to provide broadband services. In some countries, regulatory barriers inhibit cable operators from providing broadband. What would have been attractive Greenfield sites in Africa and the Middle East have instead largely opted for satellite delivered multichannel television. In other countries new operators deploying wired networks are going straight to fiber broadband and offering Internet Protocol TV (IPTV).

Despite these challenges cable broadband remains significant. It is the second largest fixed broadband technology after DSL accounting for around one in every five fixed broadband subscriptions. At the beginning of 2011, there were 98 million cable modem subscriptions around the world. Just over half are in North America and almost one quarter in Europe. There are hardly any in Africa or the Middle East. Although the proportion of cable modem subscriptions has shrank due to growing fiber optic connections, nevertheless it continues to grow in absolute terms—12% a year between 2005-2010. 

Three metrics are useful to analyzing cable modem subscriptions :

1. As a % of total fixed broadband subscriptions—measure of impact
2. As a % of households—measure of penetration
3. As a % of cable television subscriptions—measure of take-up (in some markets there are more cable modem subscriptions than cable television households due to business subscriptions)

A few countries are in the top ten in all of these metrics (see infographic). Singapore stands out, ranking first or second in all three indicators. The island state provides ideal conditions for cable broadband.  Wireline competition is essentially limited to the DSL service of the incumbent Singapore Telecom. Second, cable television has been the only multichannel viewing option since direct to home satellite dishes are forbidden except under certain conditions.  The island’s cable provider StarHub has responded to these opportunities by upgrading its network to the latest technologies. It was the first in the world to offer 100 Mbit/s download speeds using cable modem technology when it implemented DOCSIS 3.0 in 2006.  

Several other countries—Chile, Israel, Malta and the USA—are also among the top-ranked nations in cable broadband metrics. All have dynamic cable operators that have been aggressive in upgrading their networks and competing for broadband consumers with incumbent telephone operators. Operators in all these countries offer 100 Mbit/s cable broadband services, though prices and value differ widely (see chart).

It seems unlikely that cable broadband will make fresh inroads in new markets where it does not exist. But for countries that do have the cable broadband option, it helps to diversify the high-speed market and provide consumers with additional options. 

Broadband in the BRICs

Brazil, Russia, India & China are among the largest and most influential developing countries and as a group they are important for understanding emerging market trends. The table below shows how they compare in broadband household penetration. Russia, China and Brazil are fairly close together whereas India is significantly behind. Despite the importance of broadband, national statistics agencies in the BRIC countries do not compile regular figures. Data for Russia are from an ICT consultancy, China's statistic comes from the largest incumbent broadband operator, the figures for Brazil are produced by its Internet Steering Committee and the number for India was forecast by the sector regulator.

Redefining broadband

The United States Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has redefined its definition of broadband. [1] The FCC had used 200 kilo bits per second (kbps) as the threshold and has now increased this by a factor of 20 to 4 Mega bits per second (Mbps). India has proposed that 3-4 Mbps be used as the broadband threshold in a consultation paper arguing "that many bandwidth hungry applications are not getting developed as they see no business model due to restrictive capacity of the Internet in India". [2]

This trend towards higher thresholds for the definition of broadband suggests that the speed used by international organizations—256 kbps—is becoming out of touch with national goalposts and should be reexamined. [3] Nevertheless, most countries do not provide an explicit speed for broadband in their statistics and instead use general criteria such as "always-on" Internet connections or service categories (ADSL, cable modem).

This post will be updated to add the broadband definitions used by different countries as they become available.

See earlier post about this subject.

[1] "In determining whether broadband is being deployed to all Americans in a reasonable and timely fashion, this Sixth Report takes the overdue step of raising the minimum speed threshold for broadband from services in “excess of 200 kilobits per second (kbps) in both directions”—a standard adopted over a decade ago in the 1999 First Broadband Deployment Report ... As an alternative benchmark for this year’s report, and given that this year’s inquiry was conducted in conjunction with the National Broadband Plan proceeding, we find it appropriate and reasonable to adopt instead the minimum speed threshold of the national broadband availability target proposed in the National Broadband Plan. The National Broadband Plan recommends as a national broadband availability target that every household in America have access to affordable broadband service offering actual download (i.e., to the customer) speeds of at least 4 Mbps and actual upload (i.e., from the customer) speeds of at least 1 Mbps. This target was derived from analysis of user behavior, demands this usage places on the network, and recent experience in network evolution." See: FCC. July 20, 2010. SIXTH BROADBAND DEPLOYMENT REPORT. http://hraunfoss.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/FCC-10-129A1.doc

[2] "Extrapolating this trend and considering that a household connection is generally used by 3 to 4 persons, the bandwidth requirement per connection is expected to be minimum of 3 to 4 Mbps per household in very near future to support emerging applications." See: TRAI. June 10, 2010. Consultation Paper on National Broadband Plan.

http://www.trai.gov.in/WriteReadData/trai/upload/ConsultationPapers/202/consultationon10june10.pdf

[3] The ITU and OECD define broadband as 256 kbps. See: ITU. March 2010. Definitions of World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators. http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/ict/handbook.html and "OECD Broadband Portal" at: http://www.oecd.org/sti/ict/broadband

Broadband homes, 2009

Apologists for the position of the United States in broadband subscriptions per 100 people rankings fault per capita penetration as misleading. The Phoenix Center for Advanced Legal & Economic Public Policy Studies writes:

"... the fallacy of relying on the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) broadband ranks as a meaningful indicator of U.S. broadband performance ... any argument ... the U.S. is somehow "falling behind" must be met with great skepticism ... one reason per-capita connections are an invalid measure of broadband penetration is that each country has its own unique maximum value for the measure (all share zero as the minimum). " [1]

An indicator such as the percentage of households with broadband access overcomes limitations of per capita measurements since there is a clear minimum (zero) and maximum (100). Based on that indicator, the United States ranks 15th.

Iceland ranks first with 87% of its homes having broadband access in 2009. [2] Korea ranks second. According to official government data, 81.2% of Korean households had Internet access of which practically all used broadband.[3] This is in contrast to figures that have been floating around putting Korean household broadband penetration as high as 95%—curious how that originated!

[1] Phoenix Center. "OECD DATA CONTINUES TO MISLEAD ABOUT U.S. BROADBAND STANDING." Press Release, July 7, 2010. http://www.phoenix-center.org/perspectives/Perspective10-05PressReleaseFinal.pdf.

[2] 90% of Icelandic homes have Internet access of which 97% use broadband. See: Statistics Iceland. 2009. Use of computers and the Internet by households and individuals 2009. https://statice.is/lisalib/getfile.aspx?ItemID=10022

[3] Korea Internet and Security Agency. 2009. Survey on the Internet Usage. http://isis.nida.or.kr/eng/board/?pageId=040100&bbsId=10&itemId=310

Mobile broadband conundrum

Taking the statistics at face value, the number of mobile broadband subscriptions around the world exceeded fixed broadband subscriptions in mid-2009. According to the GSM Association, there were 521 million mobile broadband subscriptions in the second quarter of 2009. [1] According to Point-Topic there were 444 million fixed broadband subscriptions during the same period. [2]

However most fixed broadband subscriptions tend to be active. That is users pay a fixed monthly fee and are likely then to be using the service. On the other hand, many mobile broadband operators report the theoretical number of subscriptions--that is users with a broadband enabled handset that could use the service, whether they are using it or not. The difference between reported and active mobile broadband subscriptions is significant. According to European Union data, only 42 per cent of the 173 million mobile broadband subscriptions reported on 1 July 2009 were active. [3] In the United States, the official number of mobile broadband subscriptions dropped by 58 per cent between June and December 2008 after the definition was changed to count only active subscribers. [4]

Applying the EU ratio of total to actual mobile broadband subscriptions to the world total results in a guesstimate of 217 million mobile broadband subscriptions in mid-2009, just less than half of total fixed subscriptions.

The OECD has recently issued a methodological document with recommendations for the definitions of mobile broadband. It defines active mobile broadband subscriptions as “…voice subscriptions which also provide access to the larger Internet via HTTP at advertised speeds of at least 256 kbit/s and which have been used to make an Internet data connection using Internet Protocol (IP) in the previous three months” or “…dedicated data subscriptions on mobile networks advertising speeds of at least 256 kbit/s which are purchased separately from voice services either as a stand-alone service (modem/dongle) or as an add-on data package to a voice service requiring an additional subscription.”[5]

[1] GSMA Association. October 19, 2009. "Market Data Summary [Q2 2009]." GSM World. http://www.gsmworld.com/newsroom/market-data/market_data_summary.htm. [Accessed 1 April 2010]

[2] Fiona Vanier. September 2009. World Broadband Statistics: Q2 2009. Point Topic: London.

[3] European Commission. 18 November 2009. Broadband access in the EU: situation at 1 July 2009.

[4] Federal Communications Commission. 2010. High-Speed Services for Internet Access: Status as of December 31, 2008.

[5] Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. March 18, 2010. Wireless Broadband Indicator Methodology.

Are New Technologies Fulfilling Their Promise for Latin America?

Guest comment in Latin America Advisor:

“Mobile phone penetration has increased rapidly in Latin America from just over one for ten people in 2000, to seven for ten people in 2007. This has helped universalize access to voice services, playing a crucial role in increasing teledensity. However, as existing regulatory frameworks are being updated to take into account technology and market developments, emphasis in providing universal access to voice services will be shifting towards universalizing broadband access. High-speed access has a greater potential to impact business, health and education. It allows businesses to go online to engage in ecommerce, can support telemedicine and other health applications and provides students with faster access to the vast amount of information on the web. Countries such as Brazil are currently proposing this paradigm shift, with third generation (3G) mobile networks being considered instrumental in this task. 3G networks are capable of high-speeds comparable to fixed broadband such as ADSL and cable modem. In relation to other regions, Latin America has lagged in the availability of broadband mobile services. However, there has been an increase of 3G launches in the region. Millicom announced recently that 3G would be available on all of its regional networks before the end of 2008. Brazil auctioned 3G frequencies in December 2007. America Movil has launched 3G in over a dozen markets since 2007. If priced competitively, mobile broadband can increase competition for high-speed access, making it more affordable for homes and businesses. As more users get broadband access, this will have an impact on the business, health and education sectors.”

Defining broadband

There is no official international definition of broadband. There are a number of references citing ITU-T Recommendation I.113 as broadband being faster than primary rate ISDN (i.e., at least 1.544 or 2 Megabits per second (Mbps) depending on whether the North American or European primary rate ISDN is used). There are also references to OECD statistical reports which define broadband as at least 256 kilobits per second (kbps) in at least one direction. [1]

In reference to definitions of broadband, few countries actually define a speed. The US describes “high-speed” as more than 200 kilobits per second (kbps) in at least one direction and “advanced” as speeds of at least 200 kbps in both directions for FCC statistical reporting purposes. [2] Another example would be the Tanzania Communications Regulatory Authority which defines broadband speeds to be "upstream or downstream data flow of a minimum of 256 Kbps.” [3] The Infocom Development Authority of Singapore does not explicitly define broadband but makes reference to “entry-level 512 kbps”. [4] The Office of the Telecommunications Authority in Hong Kong states: “At present, there is no internationally agreed definition of broadband. In general, "broadband" refers to internet access service with transmission speed from hundreds of kbps (kilobits per second) to several Mbps (Megabits per second) (1 Mb = 1000 kb).”[5]

One can build on the concept of defining broadband as to what is actually available in the market and what speeds consumers are using. In the Netherlands, only 5% of subscribers to the incumbent KPN DSL service use speeds of between 375-750 kbps down and 128 kbps up; 95% use speeds of at least 1.5 Mbps down and 256 kbps up (end 2005).[6] In Denmark, only one quarter of subscribers use DSL with down speeds of less than 512 kbps; 75% thus use speeds of at least 512 kbps downstream (end 2005).[7]

In conclusion, while 256 kbps might be taken as the minimum acceptable speed to be considered broadband, in reality, service offerings⎯at least in advanced broadband markets⎯have moved beyond that and in some cases, speeds that low are not even available for broadband services. Thus it seems realistic to use primary rate ISDN (1.5 - 2 Mbps) as the minimum speed to be considered true broadband.

[1] Singh, Rajnesh. "How BROAD is my BAND???!!" Singh-a-Blog. April 30, 2006. http://singh-a-blog.blogspot.com/2006_04_01_archive.html.

[2] Federal Communications Commission. 2006. High-Speed Services for Internet Access: Status as of December 31, 2005.

[3] Tanzania Communications Regulatory Authority. 2005. The Tanzania Communications (Broadband Services) Regulations.

[4] http://www.ida.gov.sg/Publications/20061213184450.aspx
[5] Office of the Telecommunications Authority. "Definition of Broadband Service?" http://www.ofta.gov.hk/en/tips/servicetype/internet/defbroadband.html.

[6] KPN. 2006. "Quarter 4 2005 Factsheet."
[7] National IT and Telecom Agency. 2006. Tele Yearbook – 2005.

Broadband as Commodity

This shot was taken in front of the Wanchai Computer Center—a big shopping mall devoted to selling computers and accessories. Taken with natural light, the blur emphasizes the frenetic buzz of the hawkers pushing broadband services. These street vendors could just as easily been selling apples or oranges, emphasizing the point to which broadband has become a commodity in Hong Kong. The right sign shows the various flavors available from one operator—1.5Mbps, 3Mbps or 6Mbps...almost two years later, I was only getting around 491 kbps down & 131 kbps up in the USA and paying US$ 30 a month; higher speeds were not available for a residential connection. At the time this photo was taken, a 1.5 Mbps plan was HK$ 156 (US$ 20) per month. See "Broadband as Commodity: Hong Kong, China Case Study" and the presentation at the ITU Promoting Broadband Workshop.

"At current trends, virtually all of Hong Kong’s internet subscriptions will be broadband by the year 2005. Hong Kong’s broadband internet access pricing has recently become among the cheapest in the region. It is unlikely that there is this degree of broadband competition anywhere else in the world.”

South China Morning Post, 14 July 2003